Summer 2007

Robo-Nation

12 Questions about the future of robotics


By Lee Gutkind

Robots are now performing a surprising range of tasks, from bombing targets in Iraq to mowing lawns, greeting visitors at a corporate headquarters, and folding origami. Lee Gutkind questions both the promise and peril of our increasing use of robotics in society. Gutkind, a professor of English at the University of Pittsburgh, is the founder and editor of the journal Creative Nonfiction. His new book Almost Human: Making Robots Think is based on six years of research at the Carnegie Mellon Robotics Institute.

1. Roboticists believe that humans will be more comfortable dealing with creatures physically similar to themselves. ASIMO, the amazing Honda robot that can dance and climb stairs, is four feet tall with arms, legs, fingers, and so forth. But ASIMO can be off-putting — all solid wire and plastic and aluminum; no warmth, no DNA. Should robots be designed in man’s image, or as something completely different?

2. If humanoid robots become integral to our daily lives, should they be expected to follow the laws and norms of human society, or should a new set of guidelines be drawn up especially for them? If so, what are the primary elements that need to be addressed to protect robots from humans and humans from robots?

3. Robots are becoming nurse-bots and roboceptionists, jobs that have most often been performed by women. Many roboticists, the vast majority of whom are men, dismiss the danger of anthropomorphism yet frequently refer to their creations as “she.” Should robots be gender-specific? Have they already been categorized?

4. As robots become more pervasive in the workplace, what steps should be taken to preserve the livelihood of the human beings they replace? Should a vulnerable labor force be retrained in advance? Should protective legislation be passed?

5. The 10th annual RoboCup soccer tournament will take place this July, with as many as 500 teams from more than 60 countries and universities participating. Teams composed of autonomous robots (no joysticks or remote controls) of wildly varying size will pass, kick, and shoot against each other according to official soccer rules. RoboCup’s mission is to develop a robotic team that will play head-to-head with the World Cup soccer champs by the year 2050. Could the robots win? What’s the next step — robohooligans?

6. Can a great soccer team be reduced to quantifiable elements of speed, agility, and skill? Does such a team dominate because of these elements, or is there an unquantifiable aspect of guile or instinct, a “human factor,” that is key to winning? Could this factor be re-created in robots?

7. The computer revolution and the Internet got away from us. A decade ago, few would have predicted that spam would clog our e-mail conduits; that an increasing number of our purchases, from cars to shoes, would be made online; and that blogs, YouTube, and Google would threaten our privacy while shaping public opinion and popular culture. We are nearing a similar tipping point in the use of robotics. What should we do now, as a society, to prepare for the unpredictable impact of robots becoming ubiquitous in the next two decades?

8. By discovering signs that water once existed on Mars, NASA rovers Spirit and Opportunity demonstrated the potential of robots in space. Sometime in the next decade, NASA plans to send a larger and more capable robot to Mars, able to perform scientific experiments and travel for hundreds of kilometers autonomously. But there is no guarantee that this plan will go smoothly. Should scientists instead send many smaller robots to Mars to spread out and explore different sites? Or should they instead send packs of “repairable” robots to distant planets — dozens of the same model programmed to sacrifice and cannibalize each other in order to stay viable for as long as possible?

9. In the near future there will be robots designed to assist surgeons replace heart valves and knees (and possibly robots to perform surgery independently). Should a patient be able to decline robot-assisted treatment, even if his insurance company considers it cost-effective? What if the surgeon is a human using robotic remote-control technology from a hospital 1,000 miles away?

10. The Japanese believe that robots will be most useful as personal companions and caretakers for the elderly. Already, robots can take certain vital measurements, such as heart rates. As robots become more skilled and sophisticated, how can we ensure against a future of old people confined to institutions serviced and supervised by machines?

11. Human environments are fundamentally chaotic, yet robots are sensitive precision instruments that can become unreliable or agitated in unpredictable situations. How should we control environments so that robots can function consistently, and who is responsible if a destabilized robotic system damages personal property or injures a human being?

12. A congressional mandate currently stipulates that, in order to save soldiers’ lives, one-third of all ground combat vehicles must operate unmanned by 2015. What are the ramifications of this level of mechanized warfare, in which robots replace men and women?